Last November, Amadeus outlined five travel trends predicted to become mainstream in 2024. Half-way through the year, we thought it would be an idea to see how right (or wrong) we were. Contributing editor Martin Cowen takes a look.
One of my favourite times of the year is when the football season is over and the press and pundits look back at how successful (or not!) their pre-season predictions were.
In a similar vein, how did is Amadeus getting on trying to predict the travel zeitgeist in 2024?
Looking at the five trends identified , I am awarding two distinctions (where it is spot on), two merits (on the right lines) and one pass (a few years too soon).
DISTINCTION #1 - Intelligent Concierge
Generative AI (genAI) has confounded the well-established Gartner Hype Cycle. It has gone straight from the technology trigger phase to the plateau of productivity, bypassing – for now - the trough of disillusionment and the slope of enlightenment.
The use cases for genAI in travel are legion. Amadeus is actively engaged in genAI projects across almost every travel vertical it works with, as well as internally .
ChatGPT’s recent upgrades to its AI model is a major enhancement of an already impressive technology. Google has announced enhancements to its genAI product Gemini. China’s Alibaba is also actively rolling out genAI across its portfolio. The major OTAs are working on various consumer-facing iterations of genAI for trip planning and search while also using enterprise applications in the background.
I have little doubt that over time genAI will become embedded into the supply and sale of travel that engaging with genAI for travelers will be as commonplace and as established as googling. Businesses will also find ways to use genAI to increase efficiency, improve margins and decrease costs.
However, I am also aware that there could be a reckoning of sorts in the medium term, not only in terms of the public perception of genAI but also that some of the lawsuits related to copyright infringements, privacy concerns, bias and security might cut through. Travel-led genAI tools are, to an extent, ring-fenced from the wider issues, but might get caught up in the wake.
DISTINCTION #2 - Music tourism
Amadeus data proves that music tourism is a growing influence on travel, although I would not go so far as some who describe “Taylor Swift [as] the most powerful person in travel ” (even though, as a former sub-editor, I would have been delighted to come up with that headline).
Music has always been an influence on many people’s travel decision – how many people go to Ibiza because of the music? The Salzburg Opera Festival attracts 250,000 people a year. Piping Live, the annual week-long celebration of global bagpipes culture in Glasgow, welcomes 30,000 a year.
Today, the rise in music tourism is driven by the experiential trend underpinning a lot of leisure tourism, with some FOMO thrown in as well. But the growth is also driven by technology which makes it easier for travelers to self-bundle a flight and hotel with a concert ticket as part of a leisure trip.
Online agents can also build, market and promote concert packages to their audiences using their existing technology. Retail and high street travel agents can also create bespoke trips for clients, showcasing their destination expertise by suggesting and selling a trip based around the concert experience but with other features included.
So – music tourism can become a revenue stream for travel agents, but could it be a revenue stream for the musicians? How much did veteran rockers Kiss make over the years from their dedicated KISSKruises ? The tech to support “Taylor Swift Holidays” is fairly accessible – a branded package including transport to the venue, ticket (VIP/backstage/front row at a premium) and accommodation. But with a net worth in excess of a billion dollars , maybe Taylor and her team don’t need to be thinking about applying for an ATOL.
MERIT #1 - Agents of influence
I rarely engage with influencers – or bloggers as they used to be called - but I am aware that for some brands and some destinations they are an important marketing and promotion tool.
For travelers, influencers are but one of many sources of inspiration for deciding where to go. As we know, travel companies are interested in getting some skin in the game during this stage of the traveler journey and partnering with influencers is one way to get involved.
Therefore, (some) travel players will work with (some) influencers as part of their overall marketing strategy. The quantifiable impact of influencers on travel is up for discussion - but then marketing has often had trouble attributing which channel has the greatest influence on the decision-making process. If I read a blog, , visit a high street travel agent’s showroom, ask an OTA’s bot – who gets the credit when I decide to visit destination X?
I am not seeing a significant increase in the relative importance of influencers during the inspiration stage for travelers in 2024. But companies whose audience relate to influencers are still using them, so influencers are here to stay.
MERIT #2 - Business luxe-lite
Airlines are trying to find ways to differentiate in a competitive marketplace, and the November media alert about 2024 travel trends pointed out a number of carriers which have redefined their offer to business travelers and leisure travelers looking to upgrade for extra legroom or the ability to relax in a seat that converts into a bed.
Business luxe-lite is the latest manifestation of what used to be called fare families. There are many technology drivers which support airlines’ desire to create specific offers for a specific audience. And lower-cost business class fares are one of them.
There is a graveyard full of dedicated low-cost business travel airlines. Perhaps lower-cost business offers on full-service carriers is a more viable option.
Take-up of these biz luxe-lite offers from airlines appears strong, but I wonder to what extent these fares are being taken up by leisure passengers wanting a better in-flight experience rather than road warriors who are being downgraded by budget-conscious CFOs. But I guess it doesn’t matter to the airline as long as the front of the plane is full.
Pass Electric skyways
The “electric skyways” trend was based on the widely anticipated use of electric helicopters during the Paris Olympics. This would bring eVTOLs (electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles, aka “flying taxis”) to a global audience of billions and lead to an expansion of the eVTOL sector through the increased awareness.
However, at the time of writing,eVTOLs have yet to get the regulatory approvals needed from the EASA to operate in France. Some reports suggest that at best, a special temporary permit will be granted allowing a limited number of (non-commercial) demonstration flights to take place during the Games for special guests only.
There will be no billboard effect.
The eVTOL industry would like you to believe that flying taxis will become a part of our urban lifestyle. In places such asDubai and Singapore there might be a small network used by high net worth individuals but for the vast majority of business and leisure travelers, I do not see electric flying taxis blipping the radar. However,the huge sums of money being invested in eVTOLs and the projected growth of the sector suggests otherwise.
Conclusion:
There are many factors which can influence whether or not a trend becomes the norm, to say nothing of new trends emerging and established trends unravelling.
Identifying patterns which can apply across a global industry is also a challenge. But it is a challenge that the travel tech industry embraces because it needs to know what travelers want, so that it can provide the technology which allows sellers and suppliers to meet these expectations.
Many trends can be delivered by existing tech (music tourism) whereas others are only made possible by new technology (genAI). Business luxe-lite and other products will be easier to market, merchandise and manage using new offer and order systems. Flying taxis are a technology hardware issue (once regulatory issues have been settled) while influencers exist in a space where analogue and digital both remain relevant.
Amadeus can be relatively pleased with how the trends it tipped are turning out, and the wider industry can take heart from how technology plays a defining role in (almost) all the trends. Predicting travel trends can be a bit hit and miss, so respect to Amadeus for giving me the green light to unpick their picks.
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